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OPLAN 5030
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In late May 2003, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld directed
military commanders to develop a new approach for conflict with
North Korea, Operations Plan 5030. The fact of the existence of
OPLAN 5030 as well as details of this plan were first revealed in
the 21 July 2003 edition of US News and World Report, in an article
by Bruce B. Auster and Kevin Whitelaw.
Critics of the plans provisions claim that it blurs the line between
war and peace. Under the draft plan, US Forces Korea would conduct
pre-conflict maneuvers to draw down North Korea's limited military
resources. This might place such stress on the North's military that
it might provoke a military coup against the country's leader, Kim
Jong Il.
According to Auster and Whitelaw, options available under OPLAN 5030
include flying RC-135 surveillance aircraft closer to North Korean
airspace, provoking the DPRK to wear out scrambled interceptor
aircraft and burn up jet fuel. Under another gambit, US commanders
might stage a surprise or short-notice military exercises, provoking
North Korean forces to disperse to [or from] bunkers. This could
disclose details of DPRK war plans, and deplete reserse of food,
water, and other materiel.
The initial draft of 5030 included a variety of operations not
included in traditional operational war plans, such as disrupting
financial networks and strategic disinformation activities. Indeed,
the entire OPLAN 5030 story might be part of such offensive
information operations, creating a bewildering wilderness of mirrors
for the historically paranoid North.
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Nation & World 7/21/03
Upping the ante for Kim Jong Il
Pentagon Plan 5030, a new blueprint for facing down North Korea
By Bruce B. Auster and Kevin Whitelaw
Within the past two months, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld has
ordered U.S. military commanders to devise a new war plan for a
possible conflict with North Korea. Elements of the draft, known as
Operations Plan 5030, are so aggressive that they could provoke a
war, some senior Bush administration officials tell U.S. News.
Adm. Thomas Fargo, head of the U.S. Pacific Command, and senior
Pentagon planners are developing the highly classified plan. The
administration insiders, who are critical of the plan, say it blurs
the line between war and peace. The plan would give commanders in
the region authority to conduct maneuvers--before a war has started--
to drain North Korea's limited resources, strain its military, and
perhaps sow enough confusion that North Korean generals might turn
against the country's leader, Kim Jong Il. "Some of the things
[Fargo] is being asked to do," says a senior U.S. official, "are,
shall we say, provocative."
There are several war plans for Korea--Plans 5026 and 5027, as well
as 5030--that outline the different phases of war and the specific
provisions for movements of large numbers of troops, aircraft
carriers, and other war-fighting requirements. U.S. News has learned
details of the prewar phase of the newest version of Plan 5030. Some
officials believe the draft plan amounts to a strategy to topple
Kim's regime by destabilizing its military forces. The reason: It is
being pushed by many of the same administration hard-liners who
advocated regime change in Iraq. The Pentagon only recently began
offering details of the plan to top officials at the White House,
the State Department, and other agencies. It has not yet been
approved. A Pentagon spokesman declined comment.
One scenario in the draft involves flying RC-135 surveillance
flights even closer to North Korean airspace, forcing Pyongyang to
scramble aircraft and burn scarce jet fuel. Another option: U.S.
commanders might stage a weeks-long surprise military exercise,
designed to force North Koreans to head for bunkers and deplete
valuable stores of food, water, and other resources. The current
draft of 5030 also calls for the Pentagon to pursue a range of
tactical operations that are not traditionally included in war
plans, such as disrupting financial networks and sowing
disinformation.
Against the wall. Some administration officials and military experts
say they consider these tactics dangerously provocative. What would
happen, they ask, if North Korea shot down an RC-135 or lobbed
artillery at South Korea? "What the Pentagon is trying to do is
balance the risk between ceding the initiative to the enemy or
taking steps to influence it," says Andrew Krepinevich of the Center
for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. "But does war become more
likely?"
America's allies in the region--South Korea and Japan--think so.
They, along with China, worry that if the Bush administration puts
too much pressure on North Korea, Pyongyang could strike back in
unpredictable ways. "Once we push them too hard against the wall,"
says a Japanese official, "we do not know what kind of reaction Kim
Jong Il will have."
It is the Pentagon's job to be ready for war--and critics of this
war plan admit as much. The Pentagon work on 5030 was triggered by
Rumsfeld's desire to reinvent the military in the wake of lessons
learned in Afghanistan and Iraq--and that includes the way the
nation plans for war. Says one official, "The secretary wants to
make how we plan for conflicts responsive to changing situations."
But if the Pentagon gives commanders more authority to take
aggressive actions in peacetime, as contemplated in Plan 5030, it
risks tripping over the president's--and Congress's--authority to
commit the nation to war, says a senior official. "Who decides when
to go to war?" the official asks. "Good question."
With Thomas Omestad
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